There is an error in Figure 3.3. This is the tree diagram representing Eddy's (1982) medical problem. For the branch representing P(Negative | Cancer) the probability should be 0.208, NOT 0.028. Accordingly, the number at the rightmost end of the branch should be 0.0028, NOT 0.00028.
This does not affect the answer to the problem stated in the text, which remains 0.077.
My thanks to Chloe Turner (one of my students) for pointing this out.
Thursday, 21 January 2010
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